The Strategic Gamble With Russia

The Risk of Strategic Conflict is Increasing, But Russia and NATO Will Very Likely Continue to Attempt to Avoid a Direct Military Conflict in the Near Term...

Russian President Vladimir Putin Addressing International Media at the early June 2024 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)

The BLUF: The risk of strategic conflict between Russia and NATO is increasing as Russia attempts to signal its threat perception to the West concerning the view that NATO is becoming increasingly militarily involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia believes that NATO is directly responsible for Ukrainian attacks against Russia's strategic assets, escalating Russia-NATO tensions. As the war continues and Ukraine employs NATO-provided weapons to conduct attacks against Russia, NATO should expect Russia to engage in increasingly aggressive strategic messaging to deter perceived NATO threats. However, the Kremlin will very likely attempt to avoid a direct military conflict with the NATO alliance in the near term.

---

Are you busy with other things or are you a multitasker? Let me read this report to you!

---

Framing Note: To capture Russia’s intent, this analysis relies largely on Russian information sources, including Russian policy documents and Russian media reporting that cites Russian national leadership statements. Our analysis strives to cite primary sources whenever possible, often resulting in rarely citing Western sources since that information is typically second or third-hand sources.

---

The Kremlin is almost certainly attempting to signal to the West the implications of continued Russia-NATO escalation in Ukraine, specifically, Moscow’s readiness to escalate to strategic conflict to defend Russia’s national security interests. Over the past two years, Russian national leadership have issued increasingly aggressive statements concerning the risk and implications of continued Russia-NATO escalation.¹ ² ³ ⁴ The Kremlin’s statements have been and continue to be linked to Moscow’s perception that NATO is becoming increasingly militarily involved in Ukraine.⁵ ⁶ Russia is now convinced that NATO is directly involved in Ukraine and is engaged in a “hybrid war” against the Russian Federation — using the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a proxy.⁷ ⁸ ⁹ ¹⁰

• Over the past six months, Russian national leadership has specifically stated that there is a real risk that increasing tensions related to NATO could lead to strategic conflict, which Russia’s military doctrine defines as “large-scale war”.¹¹¹²¹³

• Russia’s nuclear deterrence policy and national foreign policy frame the Kremlin’s efforts to deter perceived aggressors, the catalysts for nuclear weapons use, and Russia’s national security interests, which Moscow’s equities in the Black Sea Region are one of many.¹⁴ ¹⁵ ¹⁶

• On June 5, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued new warnings toward NATO after select nations authorized Ukraine to use Western advanced military weapons against targets within Russia, suggesting that NATO nations should not question the Kremlin’s readiness to employ nuclear weapons to defend itself against strategic threats.¹⁷ ¹⁸

Russia and NATO’s perception of current strategic threats are very likely divergent, increasing the likelihood of strategic miscommunication and miscalculation. Although Western information sources are framing Russia-NATO tensions as contentious but not reaching the threshold of strategic conflict, Russian media sources are claiming that Russia-NATO tensions are rapidly escalating towards World War III.¹⁹ ²⁰ ²¹ ²² ²³ A data analysis of mentions of WWIII in Russian media reporting indicates a notable increase between February 2022 and June 2024 (Figure A).

Figure A: Mentions of WW3 in Russian Media Reporting between February 2022 and June 2024. Similar mention patterns very likely highlight where Russian media outlets each report on the same instances of when Russian national leadership discuss the potential for strategic conflict.

• Russia’s most recent statements concerning strategic escalation have been directly linked to 1) Ukrainian military strikes against Russian strategic assets, such as Russia’s early warning radars²⁴, 2) select NATO nation suggestions that military forces could be overtly deployed to Ukraine²⁵, or 3) Ukraine using Western nation-supplied weapons to conduct precision strikes against Russia.²⁶

Strategic Outlook

Russia will very likely continue to engage in aggressive strategic messaging towards NATO to signal the Kremlin’s threat perception and concern that continued escalation could lead to strategic conflict. Over the next six months, NATO should expect the Kremlin to employ its measures across the diplomatic, information, and military domains to deter perceived NATO aggression. These activities will likely include the following strategic actions:

Diplomatic: Attempts to use diplomatic channels to warn NATO of the implications of continued escalation linked to Ukraine. These efforts will almost certainly be conducted via Russia’s Foreign Ministry but could also likely include military attaches within Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Informational: Russian national leadership and Russian media statements and articles suggesting that continued Russia-NATO escalation risk resulting in strategic conflict. Russian leaders such as President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will likely espouse Russia’s official narratives. Russian Western-facing media outlets, such as TASS, RT, and Sputnik News will support these efforts, citing instances where Russian national leadership issue official statements towards NATO.

Military: Russia will very likely link pending strategic military activities or exercises with efforts to deter NATO. Additionally, should Russia decide to conduct “no-notice” or “snap” strategic exercises with Russia’s nuclear triad, the Kremlin will likely direct those activities to be highly publicized and promoted to Western audiences. These exercises include Russia’s upcoming nuclear submarine port call in Cuba, the recent Russia-Belarus non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW) exercise, and the annual strategic operations of nuclear forces (SONF) exercise in October.

Note to the Reader: Do you think Russia-NATO tensions are heading towards WWIII? If yes, what do you think the catalyst will be? If not, what do you think will reduce strategic tensions?

1. https://tass.com/world/1799391

2. https://tass.com/politics/1784109

3. https://www.rt.com/russia/598571-medvedev-nato-ukraine-nuclear-escalation/

4. https://www.rt.com/russia/598350-putin-serious-consequences-west/

5. https://tass.com/world/1761197

6. https://tass.com/defense/1748201

7. https://tass.com/politics/1569535

8. https://tass.com/world/1797837

9. https://sputnikglobe.com/20240122/natos-steadfast-defender-exercises-threaten-europes-security-1116319041.html

10. https://www.rt.com/russia/579623-moscow-responds-nato-summit/

11. https://tass.com/politics/1521961

12. https://tass.com/world/1788291

13. https://thailand.mid.ru/en/o_rossii/vneshnyaya_politika/voennaya_doktrina_rf/

14. https://www.cna.org/reports/2020/06/state-policy-of-russia-toward-nuclear-deterrence

15. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/07/russia-and-strategic-non-nuclear-deterrence/russias-strategic-deterrence-concept#:~:text=As%20a%20national%20security%20concept,and%20arguably%20as%20a%20weapon.

16. https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/

17. https://tass.com/politics/1799127

18. https://tass.com/politics/1799135

19. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-nato-plans-destroy-within-putin-ukraine-hybrid-warfare-2024-5

20. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/nato-secretary-general-stoltenberg-says-slow-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-have-benefited-russia-on-the-battlefield

21. https://tass.com/politics/1682885

22. https://tass.com/politics/1752149

23. https://www.rt.com/tags/world-war-iii-news/

24. https://www.rt.com/news/598458-icbm-radar-us-concerns/

25. https://www.rt.com/russia/593286-nato-ukraine-catastrophic-scenario/

26. https://www.rt.com/russia/598866-biden-ukraine-strikes-kremlin-prohibited/