Russia's Victory In Ukraine Is a Basic Math Problem
Correlation of Forces and Means and the Reality of War
The BLUF: The correlation of forces and means comparison between Russia and Ukraine highlights an advantage for Russia in every category for combat operations. Even though NATO is providing military assistance to Ukraine, the available manpower disparity will very likely remain in Russia’s advantage, absent NATO's overt military intervention in the war.
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Russia’s correlation of forces and means almost certainly indicates Russia will win the military fight in Ukraine — absent an unforeseeable, catastrophic military failure which is very unlikely. Since the Soviet era, Russia has employed a computational approach to determining the capacity of its adversary to engage in prolonged conflict. The process is called “correlation of forces and means (COFM), " which compares Russia’s combat capacity to that of its adversary. The computational process reveals where Russia is at an advantage or disadvantage over its enemy, information that drives decision-making throughout a conflict.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, it was publicly acknowledged that Russia maintained a military advantage in almost every category over Ukraine. Not only did Russia boast a larger standing military force than Ukraine, but it could mobilize its economy for war to a degree that Ukraine could not match without Western assistance. As of June 2024, these factors remain unchanged.
As part of Russia’s COFM calculation, Moscow compares the following factors against those of its adversary:1
active and reserve military personnel
armored vehicles and tanks
precision strike capabilities (e.g. short-ranged ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and cruise missiles)
aircraft, both logistics and strike platforms
artillery assets
strategic capabilities
and others (see Appendix A)
Russia notes where they are at an advantage or disadvantage, data that informs Russian decision-makers concerning the execution of combat operations. For example, if Russia’s adversary boasts more available light infantry elements the Russian General Staff could determine the Russian Armed Forces needs to employ more indirect and precision fire capabilities to reduce the adversary’s force numbers.
In every category pertinent to combat operations, Russia has the advantage over Ukraine. Although identifying authoritative, publicly available information concerning Ukrainian force disposition is difficult, other public data, such as the average age of a Ukrainian service member, provides insights into the pool of available military-aged personnel Ukraine can field. According to a February 2024 report from Politico, the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was 43 years old, suggesting that younger military-aged personnel are unavailable for combat operations.2
Tracking Ukrainian battle damage assessment information is equally difficult with publicly available information. However, based on NATO military assistance, it is likely that the vast majority of military equipment Ukraine possessed during the first two years of the war was damaged or destroyed, increasing the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ reliance on NATO support.3 4 5 6
Depending on how Russia decides to execute combat operations in Ukraine, a prolonged conflict supports Russia’s COFM advantage. In terms of a Russia-Ukraine war of attrition, Russia very likely retains the military advantage. Even if Russia and Ukraine are losing comparable numbers of forces every week, the original, pre-war force number disparity detracts from Ukraine’s ability to execute prolonged combat operations more so than Russia's (see Appendix A).
Strategic Outlook
NATO military aid to Ukraine will help offset the military equipment disparity between Ukraine and Russia, but the lack of military-aged personnel will almost certainly continue to undermine Ukraine’s ability to engage in prolonged military operations. Continuous NATO military armament support to Kyiv is enabling Ukraine to frustrate Russian military advances. However, absent NATO’s overt military participation in combat operations in Ukraine, Kyiv will very likely be unable to field a combat force capable of defeating Russia.
Russia very likely believes that Western nation military leadership is aware of the COFM and the disadvantages Ukraine faces in the long term. Despite Western nations’ critique that Russia did not defeat Ukraine in a short amount of time, Russia’s prolonged war against Ukraine is depleting the nation of a viable fighting force for years to come — which the Kremlin frames as “demilitarization”. A factor that would alter Russia’s COFM calculations would be NATO military force deployments into the Ukrainian combat theater. However, NATO's overt military deployment into Ukraine would very likely risk a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Unless Russia suffers a catastrophic military setback, the COFM between Russia and Ukraine will almost certainly continue to favor the Russian Armed Forces. Should Russia decide to continue to engage in a slow and deliberate offensive against Ukraine, the advantage for Russia will likely grow, resulting in the eventual defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Appendix A: COFM Comparison Between Russia and Ukraine
Note to the Reader: What are your thoughts about the COFM captured above? What do you think would alter the combat situation to Ukraine’s advantage?
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR4200/RR4235/RAND_RR4235.pdf
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-a-struggle-for-the-ages/
https://apnews.com/article/nato-russia-ukraine-war-weapons-1b994305f7e66d8583124fb6c0e22d51
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-military-aid-sweden-russia-ammunition-aircraft-1905694
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/exclusive-zelenskyy-says-without-u-s-aid-well-have-no-chance-of-winning
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/resilient-ukraine-faces-defeat-if-us-aid-falters