Igor Panarin's Prediction for the Future of the United States of America - Balkanization

Russia's Assessment Concerning the Balkanization of the US

Jun 17, 2024

The BLUF: Former Soviet KGB analyst Igor Panarin’s prediction concerning US balkanization — incorrect based on his assessed 2010 timeline — highlighted catalysts contributing to extreme political polarization in America that US data suggests risks destabilizing the nation. Although Russia has conducted information operations against the US for more than 100 years designed to destabilize the US, we are unable to determine if existing internal fissures are the result of Russian covert influence efforts, organic political consternation, or a combination of both. Russia and other foreign adversaries likely believe that the US is particularly vulnerable, specifically due to the political tensions associated with presidential election results since 2016 which exacerbated successionist movements.

An AI-generated image of someone viewing a map of a balkanized United States of America (Source: Midjourney)

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Russia likely believes that internal political divisions in the United States will lead to significant destabilization or balkanization. In the mid-2000s, former KGB analyst Igor Panarin assessed that a multitude of factors would result in political polarization in the US and would lead to balkanization by 2010. Over the past decade, Russian national leadership and Russian state media have also increasingly suggested that US internal polarization could result in “Civil War 2”.

Circa 2008, Panarin assessed the cascading effects of 1) US national debt, 2) unfettered immigration, 3) political polarization, and 4) “moral degradation” would serve as the catalysts for the balkanization of the US. Additionally, he hypothesized that America would separate into six different regions, each aligning with different nations. Specifically, Panarin predicted that China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, and Russia would either annex or have prevailing political influence over each of the six regions (see Figure A).1 2 3

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Figure A: Panarin’s prediction of how the US balkanizes (Source: The Atlantic)

Since Panarin’s assessment, Russia has not produced an updated prediction concerning the US. However, Russian national leadership and state media apparatus are increasingly suggesting that the potential for a second Civil War is increasingly likely (see Figure B). In most instances, Russian state media cited Western official polling data concerning American’s views on the potential for a second Civil War. According to May 2024 MaristPoll data, 47% of Americans believe that a Civil War is likely within the next decade.4 Notably, AI-driven data analysis of US polling data capturing Americans’ views on the potential for a Civil War since 2013 largely aligns with mentions in Russian media. However, US polling data indicates that Americans believe the potential of a Civil War in America has decreased since 2021 (see Figure C).

Figure B: Russian media mentions of Civil War in America since 2013 (Source: Russian media domains)

Figure C: American’s view of the potential for Civil War in the United States (Sources: Brookings, Real Clear Politics, Politico, Just The News)

In hindsight, Panarin’s assessment was not correct, specifically concerning his determination that the US would balkanize by 2010. However, a body of data over the past decade suggests Panarin’s stated catalysts are contributing to America’s internal destabilization.

US National Debt

According to US economic data, the US national debt has significantly increased over the past decade and is currently at $34 trillion (see Figure D).5 Panarin posited that the second and third-order effects of increased US national debt would destabilize the US economy, contributing to increased inflation and cost of living for the American citizenry. The consequences of increasing national debt would exacerbate public ire with US national leadership’s domestic policy decisions.

Immigration

US government data from the past 10 years shows that illegal immigration has increased to more than two million annual border encounters since 2022 (see Figure E).6 As part of Panarin’s analysis, he suggested that increased illegal immigration would increase the financial and social strain on the American economic system. Additionally, Panarin argues that the American citizenry’s consternation with Washington’s border policy and how immigration altered the US demographics would contribute to increased internal instability.

Political Polarization

According to a YouGov poll from April 2023, 65% of Americans believe that the US is more “politically divided than usual”.7 Additionally, data from the Pew Research Center suggests the perception of political polarization in the US has increased since 2013, with 97% of both Democrats and Republicans claiming domestic politics is increasingly polarized (see Figure F). Panarin’s assessment suggests that political polarization in the US — linked to increasingly divergent views on social policy — could result in political extremes on either side of the political spectrum calling for a dissolution of the Union. However, polling data from the Pew Research Center since 2013 suggests that less than 20% of Americans believe violence is justified to enact political change (see Figure G).

Figure G: Percentage of Americans that believe violence is justified to enact political change (Source: Pew Research Center)

Moral Degradation

Panarin’s view on moral degradation in the West is anchored in Russia’s view of “traditional Christian values”. Simply speaking, these values are linked to orthodoxy and promote the ideas of “traditional marriage”, “the nuclear family”, the promotion of Christian values in society, and others.8 Although we are unable to assess the degree to which Panarin believes America’s moral values have “degraded”, Russian national leadership, Russia’s Orthodox Church, and Russia’s state media apparatus have repeatedly pointed to US policy decisions that are divergent from traditionally accepted views of Christian values — specifically LGBTQIA+. Moscow, viewing the West as increasingly less Christian, has branded the Russian Federation as “the last defender of traditional Christian values”.9 10 11 12 13

Given the subjective nature of Panrain’s criteria for determining “moral degradation”, we are unable to assess the state of moral character in the US. However, US polling data since 2013 indicates that as of 2023, nearly 70% of Americans believe the US is becoming less Christian (see Figure H).14 15

Figure H: American view on the US becoming less Christian (Source: Pew Research Center and Gallup)

Soviet ‘Active Measures’, “Ideological Subversion”, and Russia’s “Information Confrontation”
During this analysis, we note that since the Soviet-era Russia has engaged in covert intelligence operations against the US designed to destabilize the country. According to Soviet defector Yuri Bezmenov, these activities were part of intelligence operations called ‘active measures’ — specifically “ideological subversion”. Bezmenov asserted, in the 1980s, the Soviet Union was engaged in a decades-long effort to foster the acceptance of Marxist political and social ideology within the US. During the modern era, Russia conducts information operations against the US under its “information confrontation” strategy, actions designed to shape the information environment in Moscow’s favor.16 17 18 19 20
Although we acknowledge that Russia is engaged in persistent covert information operations against the US, we are unable to determine the degree to which the Kremlin’s action have contributed to the current state of US internal discontent.

Strategic Outlook

Russia will almost certainly attempt to exploit existing social fissures in the US as part of broader efforts to destabilize America. Although we acknowledge that covert influence operations are a standard practice for Russian intelligence services, we cannot determine the degree to which internal US consternation is a result of foreign intelligence influence operations, organic tensions germaine to democratic nations, or both. Regardless, Russia — and other US adversaries — will very likely attempt to exploit vulnerabilities in US domestic political stability.

The US 2024 presidential election season very likely represents an especially vulnerable period for America. Based on the Soviet Union’s, and now Russia’s 100-year track record of engaging in influence operations targeting Western internal politics, Russia’s intelligence services will almost certainly attempt to exacerbate political polarization in the US. Regardless of who wins the presidential election in November 2024, Russia will likely attempt to identify and foment claims of election irregularities, foreign interference, or the establishment of successionist movements. For example, according to the US Justice Department, Russian intelligence attempted to exploit burgeoning successionist movements in Texas and California over the past decade.21 22