The BLUF's Guiding Standards
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Intelligence Community Directive (ICD) 203, titled "Analytic Standards," establishes the standards for producing and evaluating analytic products within the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). These standards ensure that the intelligence provided to policymakers is timely, objective, independent of political considerations, and based on all available sources of intelligence. Here are the key points of ICD 203:
Analytic Tradecraft Standards: Analysts must implement and exhibit nine analytic tradecraft standards in their work:
Properly describe the quality and credibility of underlying sources, data, and methodologies.
Properly express and explain uncertainties associated with major analytic judgments.
Properly distinguish between underlying intelligence information and analysts' assumptions and judgments.
Incorporate analysis of alternatives.
Demonstrate customer relevance and address implications.
Use clear and logical argumentation.
Explain changes to or consistency of analytic judgments.
Make accurate judgments and assessments.
Incorporate effective visual information where appropriate.
Expressing Uncertainty: Analysts should clearly explain the basis for uncertainties in their judgments, including the likelihood of events and their confidence in these judgments. Consistency in terms used to express likelihood or probability is crucial.
Distinguishing Information and Assumptions: Analysts must clearly differentiate between the intelligence information used in analysis and their own assumptions or judgments.
Analysis of Alternatives: Analysts should systematically evaluate different hypotheses to mitigate surprises and risks, especially when dealing with significant uncertainties or complex scenarios.
Customer Relevance: Analytic products should be relevant to the customers of U.S. intelligence, adding value by addressing prospects, context, threats, or factors affecting opportunities for action.
Clear Argumentation: Products should present a clear main analytic message supported by relevant information and coherent reasoning.
Consistency and Change in Judgments: Analysts should explain how their major judgments are consistent with or represent changes from previously published analysis.
ICD 203 also mandates regular review and evaluation of analytic products to ensure they meet these standards, with the ODNI providing oversight and reporting to Congress on the adherence to these standards.